Skate to Where the Puck Is Going

I recently went to my first hockey game, the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Winnipeg Jets (there were more goals than I expected but far fewer fights!). Watching the game got me thinking about one of the most quoted lines in sports.

Wayne Gretzky, often called The Great One, is credited with a piece of advice that he in turn credits to his father, Walter. The idea is to skate to where the puck is going, not to where it has been.

It is a simple phrase, and it has been used in boardrooms for decades. But it holds up well when applied to a small business and is worth looking at in practical terms.

Reacting Versus Anticipating

Chasing the puck means going to where it is right now. By the time you arrive, it has moved on. You are always a step behind, working hard and still late.

Many businesses operate this way, and understandably so. The day is full of things that need attention now. A customer complaint. A staffing gap. A supplier who raised prices. A competitor who launched something new. Each of these demands a response, and responding feels productive.

The trouble is that a business run entirely in response mode is always reacting to the past. It plans around last year's results, serves the customers it already has in the way it always has, and adjusts only after the market has moved. By then, others have already skated to the new spot.

Anticipating is different. It means asking, on a regular basis, where things are heading and positioning the business to be there when they arrive.

A Fair Note on Prediction

It is worth being careful here. Nobody can predict the future reliably, and the quote can be read as more confident than it deserves to be. Gretzky had extraordinary skill, and an enormous amount of experience behind his judgment about where the puck would go.

A useful point to be aware of is that organizations that treat the quote as an instruction to forecast outcomes may be setting themselves up for failure, because forecasts are often wrong. The real goal is resilience. A good player does not commit to one guess. They position themselves so that several possible outcomes still work.

That is a helpful way to think about it for a small business. You do not need to be right about the future. You need to be paying attention so that you can adapt when things move.

Where the Puck Might Be Heading

Every business sits in a different market, so the specifics will vary. But there are some broad areas where change tends to show up first, and where an owner can look for early signals.

Customers. How do your customers find, choose, and pay businesses like yours today compared with five years ago? Expectations about speed, convenience, and communication tend to rise steadily. What customers consider normal next year is often what a few leading businesses are doing now.

Technology. Which tools are becoming standard in your industry? You do not need to chase every new product, but it is worth noticing which ones competitors, suppliers, and customers are starting to rely on.

People. How easy is it to hire and keep good staff in your field? Shifts in the labor market, wages, and the way people want to work affect almost every business, and they change slowly enough to see coming.

Costs and financing. What is happening to the main costs in your business, such as materials, wages, rent, and insurance? How is the cost and availability of borrowing changing? These shape what you can afford and what buyers can afford to pay.

Your market. Who is moving into your area, what is being built, and which businesses are opening or closing? Local changes often show up on the street before they show up in reports.

Competitors and substitutes. Who else is solving your customers' problems, and in what new ways? The competitor that matters in five years may not be one you worry about today.

Buyers and investors. If a sale is part of your future, think about what buyers are likely to value. Preferences have been shifting toward businesses with recurring revenue, documented systems, and less dependence on the owner, and an owner who builds those qualities early is skating to where buyers are heading.

A Practical Routine for Looking Ahead

Looking forward does not need to be elaborate. A short, regular habit is enough.

Set aside an hour each quarter. Put it in the calendar and protect it, as you would a meeting with an important customer.

Ask a few standing questions. What has changed for our customers in the last three months? What are our competitors doing differently? What are we hearing from suppliers, staff, and advisers? What would we do if our biggest cost rose or our biggest customer left?

Collect signals as you go. Keep a simple note where you jot down things you notice, such as a customer request you have heard three times, a new tool a competitor uses, or a supplier hinting at changes. One signal means little, but patterns appear over time.

Talk to customers about their plans. Ask what they are working on and what is getting harder for them. Their future needs are your future market.

Ask lost customers why they left. Their answers can be more revealing than those of the customers who stayed.

Use advisers. Your accountant, banker, and trade association often see trends across many businesses before you do.

Try small experiments. If you suspect something is changing, test it on a small scale before committing. A trial of a new service, a pilot of a new tool, or an offer to a few customers costs little and teaches a lot.

Keep Your Eye on the Puck Too

One more point from the game itself. Players skate toward where the puck is going, but they still keep track of where it is. A player who ignores the puck entirely will not stay on the ice for long.

The same applies to a business. Looking ahead is not a reason to neglect the present. You still need to serve current customers well, keep the numbers healthy, and handle the day-to-day. And chasing every new trend is as risky as ignoring them all. The skill lies in noticing the changes that matter to your customers and your business and acting on those rather than on every headline.

The Takeaway

The Great One's advice is not really about prediction. It is about attention and positioning. Owners who build a regular habit of looking ahead tend to spot changes earlier, adapt more calmly, and avoid the stress of constantly catching up.

You do not need to know exactly where the puck is going. You just need to lift your head from time to time, look up the ice, and ask where things are heading. Then give yourself room to move when they do.